The conflict in Donbass is necessary for the president of Ukraine Pyotr Poroshenko to maintain his post after 2019, when presidential elections are planned in the country. This opinion was expressed by the Director of the Foundation for Effective Politics Oleg Bondarenko.
"The main factor [of escalation of the conflict in Donbass] is the presidential and parliamentary elections in Ukraine, which are to be held before May 2019. It is obvious that Poroshenko takes every chance to translate this sluggish civil war into a more active format, this is the only one for him, the way to keep the presidency by re-election or the introduction of martial law and postpone elections," the expert said.
Bondarenko recalled that at present Poroshenko is not in the first place in terms of ratings and, in the event of the election of another president, the Minsk agreements can be put paid to.
"The new president of Ukraine is likely to consider themselves free from the implementation of the Minsk agreements. I can predict that the active development of the Minsk track may end in the spring of next year, that is, there will be an aggravation or the new president will say that they are withdrawing from the Minsk agreements, or they simply will not extend the validity of the law "On the special status of Donbass" – all this will be a way out of the current format of the Minsk process," added the director of the Foundation for Effective Politics.
The expert also suggested that Kiev is gradually preparing a repeat of the scenario of the Georgian-Ossetian conflict in August 2008.
"Obviously, they will try to implement it in one form or another. If you take such a scenario, which was successfully implemented in modern times, there was only one such case - the scenario of the Croatian operation "Storm" of August 1995 on the elimination and destruction of the Republika Srpska Krajina," he recalled.
DONi News Agency