Russian-American negotiations on the settlement of the conflict in Donbass can develop according to four scenarios. At that, the most likely ones are rather pessimistic forecasts, within which breakthrough solutions will not be accepted. This opinion was expressed on Thursday at the roundtable by the Director of the Center for Political Conjuncture Alexey Chesnakov, who is close to the negotiation process.
The first scenario, according to Chesnakov, would mean, in fact, the failure of the negotiations.
"The representative of the American party Kurt Volker has already estimated the likelihood of such a scenario at 80%, with the possibility of resumption of hostilities in Donbass," he said.
The second scenario, according to the expert, could mean a dead end in the negotiations. In this case, the dialogue will be maintained, but without reaching fundamental qualitative and quantitative decisions. These two scenarios, Chesnakov continued, seem most likely.
The third scenario is the coordination of the Russian version of the resolution on the UN mission.
"It is possible, but for this the American side should show flexibility, given Russia's tough position and the absence of external and internal reasons for its correction," the political scientist said.
The least likely scenario, according to Chesnakov, is the fourth - the adoption of another version of the resolution, which would be dictated by the interests of all the parties.
Summarizing, the expert stressed that "Moscow's position is very clearly expressed in the draft resolution it proposed."
"As the representative of Moscow, the aide to the president of the Russian Federation Vladislav Surkov said: "What can be discussed here? It has to be adopted."
DONi News Agency